Impacts of Green Fraction Changes on Surface Temperature and Carbon Emissions: Comparison under Forestation and Urbanization Reshaping Scenarios

Global land cover dynamics alter energy, water, and greenhouse gas exchange between atmosphere, affecting local to global weather climate change. Although reforestation can provide localized cooling, ongoing use (LULC) shifts are expected exacerbate urban heat island impacts. In this study, we monitored spatiotemporal changes in green response transformation associated with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) provincial government’s Billion Tree Tsunami Project (BTTP) Ravi Urban Development Plan (RUDP) initiated by government of Punjab, both Pakistan. The change modeler (LCM) was used assess transformations 2000 2020 across Punjab KPK. Furthermore, a curve fit linear regression model (CFLRM) sensitivity analysis were employed analyze impacts on surface temperature (LST) carbon emissions (CE). Results indicated significant increase fraction +5.35% under BTTP, achieved utilizing bare an effective transition 4375.87 km2. However, province, alarming reduction −1.77% artificial surfaces +1.26% noted. A decrease mean monthly LST −4.3 °C noted BTTP policy, while 5.3 observed RUDP. substantial 0.17 vegetation surfaces. An −0.21 over opposite transition. suggested that fluctuations % CO2 emission. current findings assist policymakers revisiting their policies promote ecological conservation sustainability planning.